ISIL, Syria, Iraq and the Illusion of American Power
Once upon a time, there were three
dog parks. To play in either of the two nicest parks, a dog had to be
part of the pack that ran the park and kiss the ass of the Alpha Dog.
The third park wasn’t anywhere near as nice, but the possibility of
being merged with one of the nicer parks, while attractive to some of
the dogs, was never attractive enough to enough of the dogs that a
merger could happen. To keep the smaller, less nice park from screwing
up what was a relatively good thing, the two Alpha Dogs would
occasionally send over some extra bones and treats, and the dogs in the
crummy park would chow done. The end.
Welcome to geo-politics from the silly
perspective of dueling dog parks. But, while I’m hard pressed to think
of anything I’d much agree with Vladamir Putin on besides the idea that
Pussy Riot are lousy musicians, I do grant him this much — for the sake
of a stable world, the end of the Soviet Union was a tragedy if you
wanted a world that had some sort of overall organizing principle.
Humans do well with bi-polar situations — good/bad, black/white,
capitalist/communist. We don’t do so well with a world where there are
multiple polarities pulling and pushing in multiple, incoherent and
ultimately opposing directions.
The basic question asked by the McCains and
Grahams and Putins of the world is fairly simple — WHO THE HELL IS IN
CHARGE HERE! Well, nobody is, much to the dismay of the various
hobbit-functionaries and bureaucrats who think they’re really in charge
or should be.
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A recent New York Times illustrates this wonderfully. The headlines announce that Egypt and the Emirates are bombing Libya without letting the US know in advance let alone asking permission. The editorial board has a great discussion of what needs to be done to counter the Islamic State and maybe give some coherence and sense to the region. Maybe. However,
it also sums up quiet lucidly the problem that the Big Dog in the Dog
Park — the US — faces; it’s not really our dog park. The local dogs all
want someone to do something, but in the meantime, they keep
doing other stuff. Stuff that makes sense, given their local interests
and religious interests and economic interests, but really doesn’t help
in the bigger sense of the region or the world.
The prospects
of defeating ISIS would be greatly improved if other Muslim nations
could see ISIS for the threat it is. But, like Iraq, they are mired in
petty competitions and Sunni-Shiite religious divisions and many have
their own relations with extremists of one kind or another. ISIS has
received financing from donors in Kuwait and Qatar. Saudi Arabia
funneled weapons to Syrian rebels and didn’t care if they went to ISIS.
Turkey allowed ISIS fighters and weapons to flow across porous borders. All of that has to stop…
No matter how many American airstrikes are carried out — Mr. Obama is also considering strikes against ISIS in Syria —
such extremists will never be defeated if Muslims themselves don’t make
it a priority. To their credit, some leaders are speaking out. Among
them is Saudi Arabia’s highest religious authority, the grand mufti,
who called ISIS and Al Qaeda the “enemy No. 1 of Islam.” But they must
go further and begin a serious discussion about the dangers of radical
Islam and how ISIS’s perversion of one of the world’s great religions
can be reversed.
I’ve referred before to Churchill’s
analysis of the region as one of tribes with flags. What the Times isn’t
getting and what the Administration isn’t getting is that the primary
concern for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates and the Assad
family is what’s good for the various dynasties. The Saudi Royal Family
doesn’t really see a difference between the Kingdom and the family —
which is very large, very disorganized and very dysfunctional. Same in
Kuwait, same in the Emirates. If Assad was primarily a Syrian patriot,
things would be better in Syria. Since that’s not his primary reality,
this is about maintaining power, control, position and dynastic
hegemony as opposed to what’s best for the people, the country, the
region or the religion.
Militarily, I think most knowledgeable
analysts accept that somebody has got to put boots on the ground in
Syria and Iraq. I don’t see the local powers lining up to do so. Now,
from the point of view of stopping the current nonsense, I’d like to see
a couple of US Heavy Divisions supported by the Saudi Arabian Army and
some heavy forces from Iraq, with Turkish and Egyptian light forces and
an Iranian logistics force to provide support and aid. Chances of that
happening are slim, none and illusory.
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The Challenge of Religious or Cultural Diversity
Another problem is that
Islam is even less organized than Christianity. The Sunnis and the
Shiites aren’t equivalent to the Roman Catholic Church and the Orthodox
Church. The two most cohesive elements in Islam, Iran and Saudi Arabia,
are religious states in a state of ideological and religious conflict
for the past 1400 or so years. While it’s excellent that the Grand Mufti
of Mecca has raised the issue of ISIL and al Queida as an actual threat
to Islam, there are other Grand Muftis and Ayatollahs, all of whom
envision themselves equally grand. Bin Laden was not a religious figure
but he felt perfectly OK issuing Fatwahs, and a lot of Muslims were fine
with that. The five fold path involves subjugation to God; no other
allegiance is necessary.
So, going back to my dog park parable, what
can we do? Consider this — it’s not our damned dog park. We have
interests, sure we have interests. But it’s their region and they need
to work it out, and forcing our interests to the front just adds
complications and frustrations. I would say that our best solution in
the current world is to stop trying to run their dog park, and stop
sending over bones and treats, except in a pure quid pro quo, a formula
that should include Israel since they play in that region. Let the fires
burn out, because anything we do just fans the flames.
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