Tensions continue to mount in the South China Sea and with Beijing increasingly desperate to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the wake of The Hague ruling the possibility for a conflict in one of Asia's most dangerous flash points has never been greater.
The
People’s Republic of China may soon look to fundamentally alter the
status-quo in the South China Sea by seizing the disputed Scarborough
Shoal within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines – a
move that Washington considers a "red line" with President Obama warning
of "serious consequences" in March if China attempted to reclaim the
land.
An article in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post raises
the specter of the potential incursion quoting "a source familiar
with the matter" detailing that Beijing would not look to reclaim the
territory before hosting the G-20 next month, but could begin
construction efforts on the land mass sometime between September and
when Americans go to the polls in November.
The source suggests that Beijing may look to take advantage of the domestic distractions put on President Obama during the political season. "Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office," said the source. "That might make him busy and he might not have the time to take care of regional security issues."
The potential move is seen by security analysts as a way for China to counteract the recent ruling by The Hague arbitration court and effectively nullify any possible claims to the important body of water. The ruling came after the Philippines submitted for unilateral arbitration, at the behest of the Obama administration, with the court ruling against China’s historic claim to the area citing in large part the Scarborough Shoal.
The South China Sea is home to over 40% of the world’s shipborne
trade and also possesses one of the world’s largest oil and natural gas
deposits meaning that the economic consequence of fettering away the
territory based on the ruling, which China vehemently denounces, would
have a substantial negative economic impact on Beijing for years
to come.
Pressure from the international community to evacuate from the waters based on The Hague ruling have outraged Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping calling for a rival alliance of Russia and China to form a “New World Order” that would leave NATO "powerless" during his speech at the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party two weeks ago.
The source does believe that the possibility exists that China will
avoid reclaiming the Scarborough Shoal or taking any similar provocative
action in light of the fact that the Philippines have expressed an
openness to find ways to resolve the dispute peacefully.
Scarborough Shoal is located 143 miles (230km) from the Philippines coast with overlapping claims over the territory by Manila, Beijing, and Taipei. In 2012, Chinese coastguard ships took control of the area after a tense stand-off with Philippine vessels.
http://sputniknews.com/asia/20160815/1044267318/china-red-line-scarborough-obama.html
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AP Photo/ Renato Etac
The source suggests that Beijing may look to take advantage of the domestic distractions put on President Obama during the political season. "Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office," said the source. "That might make him busy and he might not have the time to take care of regional security issues."
The potential move is seen by security analysts as a way for China to counteract the recent ruling by The Hague arbitration court and effectively nullify any possible claims to the important body of water. The ruling came after the Philippines submitted for unilateral arbitration, at the behest of the Obama administration, with the court ruling against China’s historic claim to the area citing in large part the Scarborough Shoal.
Pressure from the international community to evacuate from the waters based on The Hague ruling have outraged Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping calling for a rival alliance of Russia and China to form a “New World Order” that would leave NATO "powerless" during his speech at the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party two weeks ago.
©
REUTERS/ Kim Kyung-Hoon
Scarborough Shoal is located 143 miles (230km) from the Philippines coast with overlapping claims over the territory by Manila, Beijing, and Taipei. In 2012, Chinese coastguard ships took control of the area after a tense stand-off with Philippine vessels.
http://sputniknews.com/asia/20160815/1044267318/china-red-line-scarborough-obama.html
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