The US is only one of 6 players on the UN/EU side, so not sure how Bibi and Iran Hawks can scuttle this one
P5+1 Negotiations in Lausanne, Switzerland
Anyone
who thinks the status quo is better for Israel, the US, Europe, the
Islamic world or the Iranian people is delusional, crooked or evil… but
never underestimate the ingenuity of those who are foolish, delusional,
crooked or evil!
The Economist has a new summary piece on the Iran Nuclear Deal that is actually supportive of it. Frankly, the only people not supportive of the deal are those who profit from the current level of nonsense. Of course, there is no shortage of delusional, crooked or evil players in this demolition derby.Bibi the Great and Awful falls into the category of delusional, crooked and evil. If Israel had not been so cynically smug about its own nuclear capabilities, I’d possibly be less condemnatory, but Israel has some stockpile probably far larger than any regional player — Pakistan and India — and that cancels their right to object, to my mind.
The Likud
approach to this issue is somewhat absurd and self-culpatory. If Israel
comes to the table with demands, then its nukes are an issue for
resolution. I am somewhat surprised that, as the reality of Israeli
nukes filters out to the world, nobody is demanding some outlaw status
for Israel. Do the UN’s nuclear non-proliferation agencies have access
to Israel’s nuke sites and/or labs?
The US Senate is another interesting site of possible problems. The Senate does not have the right to “advise and consent” to this deal, and any attempt to do so is an attempt to amend the constitution, which is somewhat absurd.
If the Congress convinces itself to demand that it weigh in on this issue, then it has by extension the right and responsibility to weigh in on every agreement, letter of understanding and memorandum of agreement that State executes for the President in his role as the guy in charge of foreign relations.
Since these guys are barely capable of showing up for work and not tripping over their shoe laces, which they have tied together anyway, I fail to see how this is a positive step. Seriously, if the Senate has to actually pay attention to this level of detail, nothing will ever be done. Of course, that’s kind of where we are anyway, so…
The approach of Senator Corker seems to be to try and work a deal with the President to get some level of formal involvement for the Senate in this issue. Given the US public general acceptance of the MacArthur Doctrine about “Never getting involved in a land war in Asia” after 13 years and two land wars in Asia plus whatever it is we’re doing in Iraq and Syria, their response should be a no-brainer.
I’d like to think that the American people have the sense to pour piss out of their boots and vote against anybody who stands in the way of this opportunity to ratchet down the whole mess. But, probably not going to happen — there will be conflict in the brain between the issues citizens should be paying attention to and the issues they want to pay attention to. I don’t think that I’m alone in having my doubts about the outcome of “should versus will”.
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I’m getting a bit of a kick out of the Republican possible candidates for the Republican Nomination to be their Candidate for President in 2016, where they oppose this deal for a variety of reasons — like Jesus Christ told them to oppose it — or the Heritage Foundation told them to oppose it — or their expert experience on foreign affairs and matters of war and peace told them to oppose it.
The people
who are claiming this one are folks like Rick Perry — yeah, that Rick
Perry — Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and of course that great American tandem
act, John McCain and Lindsey Graham. Seriously, of this mob, the only
people who can claim actual experience with policy, implementation and
military issues are Graham the Reserve Air Force Lawyer, Perry the
former Air Force Officer, and McCain the retired Naval Aviator who kept
crashing airplanes. Graham and McCain were strong opponents of the
Cheney-Rumsfeld-Neo-Con policy drivers, but seem to have mellowed toward
those ideas, if not to the actual individuals. Perry may or may not be
able to spell Neo-Con.
There are nutcases in Iran as well.
The hardliners who end every opportunity to do so with “Death to
America” or “Death to Israel” are eager for this to fail. The Iranian
Republican Guard has a vested interest in stopping this, since their
leaders have managed to make a lot of money in dodging the sanctions,
and the IAEA would have to have access and surveillance over some of the
IRG’s installations.___
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It’s worth considering who favors the deal; it appears that the Israeli intelligence apparatus or a good part of the Israeli security community are, as the Economist calls them, “sanguine” about the deal. I suspect business interests will be largely in favor of the deal, since it will open up new markets that are clamoring for new markets, as they always do. The vast majority of the Iranian people, both in Iran and in the Iranian diaspora will be in favor of the deal — sanctions have done horrible things to Iran’s economy and infrastructure, as well as to the quality of life for the people in urban areas. The Iranian Generation Y and Millennial population are fed up with their isolation from the rest of the world and are eager to end this.
Since the
US is a negotiator, but not the only negotiator on one side of the
table, I think that trying to leverage Boehner and the Boys is a serious
mistake and overreach. If the US can’t get its act together on this
one, there’s no reason why Russia and China won’t want to proceed;
France and Germany may choose to do the same. So, holding out will be
the United States and Great Britain, which appeals to the Churchill-myth
that Bibi and others keep pushing — comparing Kerry to Neville
Chamberlain, and the negotiations to Munich.
However, it’s pretty ineffective and a
good way of isolating not Iran but the US and Great Britain. China has
been seeking a way to have the same influence, at least on the
international financial and economic realm, as the US. This would
present that kind of opportunity; in addition, China’s hunger for oil
and gas could be easily assuaged by Iran. France, Russia and China have weapons industries seeking clients.
I’m not sure how this plays out between now and the end of June. My guess is that the odds of it succeeding are 60/40 against. In the words of that great humanitarian, philosopher and statistician, Wilson Mizner… life is and remains 60/40 against.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/04/07/the-iran-nuclear-deal/
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